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人民日报谈经济风向标还灵不灵:不再是绝对权威

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月26日 03:16:17
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U米娱乐官方平台直属招商最高㊖100返9♔诚招代理【微信QQ同步】860925559 腾讯分分彩,腾讯5分彩,腾讯10分彩,时时彩龙虎和,U米彩票代理,U米官网,U米平台注册,U米乐官网,U米娱乐官方网站。人民日报谈经济风向标还灵不灵:不再是绝对权威

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(  铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(和)(工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(,一)(向)(被)(视)(为)(经)(济)(风)(向)(标)(
  风)(向)(标)(还)(灵)(不)(灵)(?(特)(别)(报)(道)(·新)(视)(角)(看)(形)(势)(②)
  前)(文)(回)(顾)(
  5月)(25日)(,本)(版)(刊)(发)(“新)(视)(角)(看)(形)(势)(”系)(列)(报)(道)(第)(一)(篇)(《速)(度)(放)(缓)(就)(是)(形)(势)(不)(好)(吗)(?》。
  报)(道)(认)(为)(,单)(纯)(的)(经)(济)(增)(速)(不)(能)(反)(映)(一)(个)(经)(济)(体)(发)(展)(的)(全)(貌)(,难)(以)(从)(中)(看)(出)(投)(入)(是)(多)(是)(少)(、环)(境)(是)(优)(是)(劣)(、物)(价)(是)(高)(是)(低)(、就)(业)(是)(好)(是)(坏)(等)(各)(种)(因)(素)(。因)(此)(,评)(价)(当)(前)(的)(经)(济)(形)(势)(,不)(能)(只)(盯)(着)(速)(度)(指)(标)(,更)(要)(看)(到)(速)(度)(之)(外)(的)(东)(西)(。如)(果)(不)(仅)(仅)(以)(速)(度)(看)(形)(势)(,我)(们)(会)(清)(晰)(地)(看)(到)(,当)(前)(我)(国)(就)(业)(形)(势)(稳)(定)(,城)(乡)(居)(民)(收)(入)(平)(稳)(增)(长)(,全)(面)(深)(化)(改)(革)(扎)(实)(推)(进)(,经)(济)(结)(构)(战)(略)(性)(调)(整)(逐)(步)(深)(化)(,一)(些)(新)(的)(增)(长)(点)(破)(茧)(而)(出)(。这)(些)(都)(充)(分)(表)(明)(,我)(国)(经)(济)(发)(展)(取)(得)(了)(来)(之)(不)(易)(的)(成)(绩)(,经)(济)(金)(融)(风)(险)(总)(体)(可)(控)(,社)(会)(大)(局)(稳)(定)(。
  报)(道)(认)(为)(,这)(些)(变)(化)(也)(反)(映)(了)(经)(济)(发)(展)(新)(常)(态)(的)(一)(些)(特)(征)(。而)(新)(常)(态)(是)(中)(国)(经)(济)(进)(入)(更)(高)(层)(次)(发)(展)(阶)(段)(后)(才)(能)(出)(现)(的)(状)(态)(,是)(我)(们)(多)(年)(来)(追)(求)(的)(状)(态)(,是)(“好)(常)(态)(”而)(非)(“坏)(常)(态)(”。
  核)(心)(阅)(读)(
  铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(、工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(等)(一)(些)(传)(统)(微)(观)(指)(标)(持)(续)(走)(弱)(,而)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(依)(然)(处)(于)(合)(理)(区)(间)(,这)(种)(“背)(离)(”的)(深)(层)(次)(原)(因)(是)(我)(国)(的)(经)(济)(结)(构)(在)(不)(断)(优)(化)(,而)(这)(,正)(是)(经)(济)(发)(展)(新)(常)(态)(的)(重)(要)(特)(征)(,也)(是)(当)(前)(经)(济)(运)(行)(中)(的)(突)(出)(亮)(点)(
  今)(年)(一)(季)(度)(,我)(国)(铁)(路)(货)(物)(发)(送)(量)(完)(成)(8.7亿)(吨)(,同)(比)(下)(降)(约)(9%,运)(量)(回)(到)(5年)(前)(水)(平)(。4月)(,工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(同)(比)(下)(降)(1.1%,尽)(管)(降)(幅)(较)(今)(年)(2月)(份)(和)(3月)(份)(收)(窄)(,但)(仍)(在)(始)(于)(年)(初)(的)(下)(降)(通)(道)(中)(。
  铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(和)(工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(,一)(向)(被)(视)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(风)(向)(标)(。如)(今)(这)(两)(个)(传)(统)(微)(观)(指)(标)(持)(续)(走)(弱)(,是)(否)(意)(味)(着)(中)(国)(经)(济)(有)(失)(速)(风)(险)(?
  指)(标)(走)(低)(怎)(么)(看)(
  如)(果)(单)(以)(铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(、工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(等)(一)(些)(传)(统)(微)(观)(指)(标)(判)(形)(势)(,就)(会)(放)(大)(下)(行)(压)(力)(
  铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(与)(工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(,曾)(被)(喻)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(“晴)(雨)(表)(”。由)(于)(我)(国)(经)(济)(结)(构)(中)(,重)(化)(工)(业)(占)(比)(较)(高)(,对)(大)(宗)(物)(资)(运)(输)(依)(赖)(较)(大)(,再)(加)(上)(我)(国)(工)(业)(企)(业)(多)(在)(东)(部)(,而)(能)(源)(与)(原)(材)(料)(多)(集)(中)(在)(西)(部)(,工)(业)(企)(业)(生)(产)(规)(模)(扩)(张)(时)(,也)(会)(带)(动)(铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(增)(加)(,因)(此)(运)(输)(大)(宗)(物)(资)(的)(主)(动)(脉)(—铁)(路)(的)(运)(量)(就)(成)(为)(观)(察)(经)(济)(走)(势)(的)(重)(要)(微)(观)(指)(标)(。同)(样)(的)(道)(理)(,由)(于)(我)(国)(工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(占)(全)(社)(会)(用)(电)(量)(的)(70%,自)(然)(也)(被)(视)(为)(能)(反)(映)(经)(济)(活)(跃)(程)(度)(的)(微)(观)(指)(标)(。
  当)(前)(铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(与)(工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(指)(标)(走)(弱)(,在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(确)(实)(反)(映)(出)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(较)(大)(。“中)(国)(正)(经)(历)(从)(传)(统)(工)(业)(向)(现)(代)(制)(造)(业)(脱)(胎)(换)(骨)(过)(程)(中)(的)(一)(次)(大)(裂)(变)(,一)(定)(会)(有)(一)(些)(企)(业)(出)(现)(经)(营)(困)(难)(,落)(后)(产)(能)(肯)(定)(要)(被)(淘)(汰)(。”国)(家)(信)(息)(中)(心)(首)(席)(经)(济)(师)(范)(剑)(平)(说)(。
  用)(电)(量)(的)(下)(滑)(更)(反)(映)(出)(传)(统)(工)(业)(特)(别)(是)(高)(耗)(能)(产)(业)(的)(不)(景)(气)(。一)(季)(度)(,我)(国)(大)(中)(型)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(实)(现)(销)(售)(收)(入)(7629亿)(元)(,同)(比)(下)(降)(14.48%,主)(营)(业)(务)(亏)(损)(超)(过)(110亿)(元)(;前)(4个)(月)(,全)(国)(煤)(炭)(产)(量)(同)(比)(下)(降)(6.5%,全)(社)(会)(煤)(炭)(库)(存)(已)(持)(续)(40个)(月)(超)(过)(3亿)(吨)(。
  制)(造)(业)(是)(一)(国)(经)(济)(的)(基)(础)(,对)(于)(铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(、工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(等)(指)(标)(所)(反)(映)(出)(来)(的)(工)(业)(遇)(到)(的)(困)(难)(,应)(当)(给)(予)(足)(够)(重)(视)(和)(正)(确)(应)(对)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,也)(应)(看)(到)(,如)(果)(单)(以)(这)(些)(传)(统)(微)(观)(指)(标)(判)(形)(势)(,就)(会)(放)(大)(下)(行)(压)(力)(。国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(新)(闻)(发)(言)(人)(盛)(来)(运)(举)(例)(说)(:“目)(前)(,六)(大)(高)(耗)(能)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(占)(整)(个)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(30%左)(右)(,但)(其)(用)(电)(量)(占)(全)(国)(工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(的)(60%以)(上)(。经)(济)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(的)(时)(候)(,由)(于)(高)(耗)(能)(工)(业)(快)(速)(回)(落)(,造)(成)(用)(电)(量)(下)(滑)(幅)(度)(更)(大)(。”
  事)(实)(上)(,今)(年)(以)(来)(,我)(国)(经)(济)(发)(展)(取)(得)(了)(来)(之)(不)(易)(的)(成)(绩)(,经)(济)(金)(融)(风)(险)(总)(体)(可)(控)(,社)(会)(大)(局)(稳)(定)(。一)(季)(度)(,我)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(达)(到)(7%,与)(预)(期)(目)(标)(相)(符)(,这)(在)(国)(际)(上)(也)(是)(较)(高)(的)(速)(度)(,且)(对)(应)(的)(经)(济)(增)(量)(十)(分)(可)(观)(。“今)(年)(如)(果)(能)(实)(现)(7%的)(增)(速)(,将)(带)(来)(近)(五)(年)(来)(最)(多)(的)(经)(济)(增)(量)(,高)(于)(2010年)(10.4%增)(速)(所)(带)(来)(的)(经)(济)(增)(量)(。”国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(中)(国)(经)(济)(景)(气)(监)(测)(中)(心)(副)(主)(任)(潘)(建)(成)(说)(。
  结)(构)(优)(化)(是)(主)(因)(
  产)(业)(结)(构)(、二)(产)(内)(部)(结)(构)(优)(化)(,导)(致)(一)(些)(微)(观)(指)(标)(与)(经)(济)(形)(势)(的)(相)(关)(性)(减)(弱)(
  那)(么)(,如)(何)(解)(释)(铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(、工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(持)(续)(走)(弱)(,而)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(依)(然)(处)(于)(合)(理)(区)(间)(呢)(?
  —产)(业)(结)(构)(在)(优)(化)(。
  2013年)(,我)(国)(服)(务)(业)(占)(GDP比)(重)(及)(对)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(贡)(献)(率)(均)(超)(过)(第)(二)(产)(业)(,标)(志)(着)(我)(国)(产)(业)(结)(构)(发)(生)(了)(里)(程)(碑)(式)(的)(变)(化)(。“除)(非)(经)(济)(增)(长)(回)(到)(粗)(放)(时)(代)(,否)(则)(铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(、工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(等)(传)(统)(微)(观)(指)(标)(与)(经)(济)(形)(势)(的)(相)(关)(性)(一)(定)(是)(减)(弱)(的)(”,范)(剑)(平)(说)(,用)(工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(等)(反)(映)(大)(工)(业)(时)(代)(全)(貌)(的)(典)(型)(指)(标)(来)(审)(视)(服)(务)(业)(占)(比)(已)(跃)(居)(第)(一)(的)(中)(国)(经)(济)(,肯)(定)(是)(不)(全)(面)(的)(。
  国)(家)(发)(改)(委)(副)(秘)(书)(长)(王)(一)(鸣)(也)(认)(为)(,过)(去)(以)(铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(、工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(等)(指)(标)(来)(研)(判)(经)(济)(形)(势)(,是)(因)(为)(制)(造)(业)(比)(重)(比)(较)(大)(,而)(这)(些)(指)(标)(往)(往)(难)(以)(全)(面)(反)(映)(我)(国)(服)(务)(业)(的)(快)(速)(发)(展)(。
  —产)(业)(内)(部)(的)(结)(构)(在)(优)(化)(。
  比)(如)(,近)(年)(来)(,我)(国)(高)(速)(公)(路)(通)(车)(里)(程)(不)(断)(增)(加)(,航)(空)(运)(量)(也)(在)(不)(断)(增)(加)(。今)(年)(一)(季)(度)(,在)(综)(合)(交)(通)(运)(输)(体)(系)(中)(,铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(在)(总)(货)(运)(量)(中)(的)(占)(比)(只)(有)(9.2%,已)(无)(法)(客)(观)(、全)(面)(地)(反)(映)(中)(国)(物)(流)(市)(场)(的)(整)(体)(需)(求)(和)(发)(展)(趋)(势)(。
  再)(如)(,制)(造)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(也)(导)(致)(部)(分)(传)(统)(微)(观)(指)(标)(的)(代)(表)(性)(降)(低)(。在)(第)(二)(产)(业)(内)(部)(,能)(耗)(较)(低)(的)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(业)(比)(重)(持)(续)(提)(高)(。此)(外)(,国)(家)(对)(六)(大)(高)(耗)(能)(产)(业)(也)(进)(行)(了)(技)(术)(改)(造)(。今)(年)(一)(季)(度)(,我)(国)(单)(位)(GDP能)(耗)(同)(比)(下)(降)(了)(5.6%。这)(也)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(导)(致)(工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(不)(能)(完)(全)(准)(确)(地)(分)(析)(经)(济)(的)(活)(跃)(度)(。
  事)(实)(上)(,一)(些)(转)(型)(升)(级)(走)(在)(前)(面)(的)(地)(区)(,尽)(管)(铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(、工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(在)(下)(降)(,但)(经)(济)(减)(速)(的)(压)(力)(并)(不)(大)(,比)(如)(北)(京)(,第)(三)(产)(业)(比)(重)(已)(达)(75%,高)(科)(技)(产)(业)(占)(比)(也)(相)(对)(较)(高)(,尽)(管)(工)(业)(综)(合)(能)(源)(消)(费)(量)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(,但)(经)(济)(运)(行)(态)(势)(仍)(然)(良)(好)(。相)(反)(,像)(东)(北)(等)(传)(统)(产)(业)(比)(重)(过)(大)(的)(地)(区)(,用)(电)(量)(等)(传)(统)(微)(观)(指)(标)(就)(能)(有)(效)(反)(映)(出)(地)(区)(经)(济)(减)(速)(压)(力)(较)(大)(。
  由)(此)(可)(见)(,铁)(路)(货)(运)(量)(、工)(业)(用)(电)(量)(等)(一)(些)(传)(统)(微)(观)(指)(标)(不)(再)(是)(衡)(量)(经)(济)(形)(势)(的)(“绝)(对)(权)(威)(”,其)(深)(层)(次)(原)(因)(是)(我)(国)(的)(经)(济)(结)(构)(在)(不)(断)(优)(化)(,而)(这)(,正)(是)(经)(济)(发)(展)(新)(常)(态)(的)(重)(要)(特)(征)(,也)(是)(当)(前)(经)(济)(运)(行)(中)(的)(突)(出)(亮)(点)(。
  更)(好)(反)(映)(新)(常)(态)(
  应)(有)(更)(多)(反)(映)(质)(量)(和)(效)(益)(的)(指)(标)(,体)(现)(创)(新)(状)(态)(和)(实)(际)(成)(效)(的)(指)(标)(
  不)(久)(前)(,当)(一)(季)(度)(国)(民)(经)(济)(运)(行)(数)(据)(公)(布)(时)(,不)(少)(人)(注)(意)(到)(,国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(不)(仅)(发)(布)(了)(全)(国)(网)(上)(商)(品)(零)(售)(额)(和)(全)(国)(网)(上)(服)(务)(零)(售)(额)(,还)(发)(布)(了)(网)(上)(商)(品)(零)(售)(额)(中)(的)(吃)(、穿)(、用)(三)(大)(类)(商)(品)(的)(增)(长)(速)(度)(。从)(一)(年)(前)(首)(次)(推)(出)(“网)(络)(销)(售)(数)(据)(”,到)(如)(今)(进)(一)(步)(细)(化)(微)(观)(数)(据)(,统)(计)(指)(标)(也)(开)(始)(紧)(紧)(拥)(抱)(互)(联)(网)(时)(代)(。
  “互)(联)(网)(+、P2P、O2O……怎)(样)(更)(好)(地)(用)(统)(计)(指)(标)(去)(反)(映)(新)(常)(态)(下)(不)(断)(孕)(育)(成)(长)(的)(新)(业)(态)(、新)(产)(品)(、新)(商)(业)(模)(式)(,确)(实)(是)(个)(新)(课)(题)(。”王)(一)(鸣)(说)(。
  新)(常)(态)(下)(,要)(想)(更)(客)(观)(全)(面)(地)(反)(映)(经)(济)(形)(势)(,就)(应)(有)(更)(丰)(富)(的)(微)(观)(指)(标)(统)(计)(数)(据)(作)(支)(撑)(。
  “移)(动)(互)(联)(时)(代)(让)(我)(们)(有)(了)(更)(多)(获)(得)(经)(济)(数)(据)(的)(渠)(道)(,而)(且)(这)(些)(大)(数)(据)(更)(动)(态)(、更)(准)(确)(、更)(廉)(价)(。”范)(剑)(平)(说)(,现)(在)(统)(计)(部)(门)(都)(是)(主)(动)(调)(查)(数)(据)(,被)(调)(查)(对)(象)(的)(心)(理)(戒)(备)(可)(能)(会)(削)(弱)(数)(据)(的)(真)(实)(性)(,而)(实)(际)(经)(济)(生)(活)(中)(自)(然)(留)(下)(的)(数)(据)(,如)(果)(被)(收)(集)(、分)(析)(、计)(算)(,往)(往)(能)(更)(真)(实)(地)(反)(映)(现)(实)(。比)(如)(非)(典)(时)(期)(,上)(海)(市)(曾)(用)(国)(际)(漫)(游)(的)(数)(据)(来)(推)(测)(全)(市)(有)(多)(少)(境)(外)(人)(员)(,这)(比)(入)(户)(调)(查)(的)(效)(果)(要)(好)(。目)(前)(,国)(外)(不)(少)(调)(查)(公)(司)(已)(经)(开)(始)(大)(量)(运)(用)(大)(数)(据)(来)(反)(映)(现)(状)(、预)(测)(未)(来)(。
  新)(常)(态)(下)(,统)(计)(指)(标)(应)(当)(与)(时)(俱)(进)(,更)(加)(完)(善)(、充)(实)(。
  不)(少)(专)(家)(建)(议)(,反)(映)(服)(务)(业)(发)(展)(的)(指)(标)(应)(与)(其)(在)(经)(济)(总)(量)(中)(的)(地)(位)(相)(匹)(配)(。“现)(在)(我)(们)(每)(月)(有)(反)(映)(工)(业)(及)(其)(细)(分)(行)(业)(的)(生)(产)(、销)(售)(、价)(格)(、库)(存)(、利)(润)(、投)(资)(等)(统)(计)(指)(标)(,但)(缺)(乏)(服)(务)(业)(的)(相)(关)(指)(标)(,在)(第)(三)(产)(业)(已)(占)(GDP半)(壁)(江)(山)(的)(今)(天)(,不)(能)(不)(说)(是)(一)(个)(缺)(憾)(。”潘)(建)(成)(说)(。
  新)(常)(态)(下)(,转)(方)(式)(、调)(结)(构)(被)(放)(在)(更)(为)(重)(要)(的)(位)(置)(,也)(需)(要)(有)(更)(多)(反)(映)(经)(济)(运)(行)(质)(量)(和)(效)(益)(的)(指)(标)(,以)(及)(体)(现)(创)(新)(状)(态)(和)(实)(际)(成)(效)(的)(指)(标)(。
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